Based on the current 2017 Medicare Part D plan enrollment (September 2017), we can estimate that around 61% of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in a stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect to see
an increase of about $8.12 in their monthly 2018 Medicare Part D plan premiums - unless they change their Medicare plan coverage to a more affordable 2018 Medicare Part D or Medicare Advantage plan.
As was true in past years, our national
PDP-Facts page provides both the average national stand-alone Medicare Part D plan premium weighted by current Medicare plan enrollment (or popularity) (
$43.69 in 2018), as well as the un-weighted national average premium (
$52.69 in 2018).
As may be expected, the weighted average Medicare Part D premiums are lower than the un-weighted average premiums, showing that most Medicare beneficiaries chose a 2017 Medicare Part D plan with a lower monthly premium.
The overall average, un-weighted 2018 Medicare Part D premium (not considering plan enrollment) has increased slightly (from $51.96 to $52.69), showing that the monthly Medicare Part D plan premiums have generally remained somewhat stable over the past plan-year.
However, the national average monthly 2018 Medicare Part D premium, weighted by the number of people enrolled in each plan will increase to $43.69 or an
9% increase over the 2017 weighted monthly premium of $39.90, with actual average monthly premium increases varying by state or Medicare region.
This means that if everyone stays in their current 2017 stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plan through 2018, beneficiaries will see an increase in their monthly premiums.
Why are our average Medicare Part D premiums higher than premiums projected by Medicare?
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recently
issued a press release projecting a decrease in 2018 Medicare Part D premiums. CMS noted that, " [e]arlier this year , CMS announced
that the average basic premium for a Medicare prescription drug plan in
2018 is projected to decline to an estimated $33.50 per month. This
represents a decrease of approximately $1.20 below the average basic
premium of $34.70 in 2017."
The difference between our calculations and CMS is that we are only considering stand-alone Medicare Part D plans (PDPs) and not considering Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage (MAPDs). We find that many MAPDs have a $0 monthly premium that may skew average premiums figures toward lower values.
The following chart is showing how the average and weighted-average stand-alone Medicare Part D premiums have changed since 2007 - and compare these values to the CMS estimated base Medicare Part D premium.
How about a few State-specific Examples?
As a state- level example, 82% of the Medicare beneficiaries in
Maine in
New Hampshire who are enrolled in a stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an increase in their 2018 monthly Medicare Part D premiums. The average increase is $7.89.
As another example, 71% of the people enrolled in a
Florida stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an average increase in their 2017 monthly Medicare Part D premiums of around $8.09.
Reminder: Your Medicare plan costs and coverage can (and probably will) change each year.
If you are interested in learning more about your 2018 Medicare plan options, the annual Open Enrollment Period (or Annual Election Period) for Medicare Advantage plans and Medicare Part D drug plans begins on October 15 and continues through December 7, 2017.
Not sure where to begin?
If you or another Medicare beneficiary needs assistance understanding how your 2017 Medicare plan is changing or to learn more about your 2018 Medicare plan coverage options, please call 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227) and speak with a Medicare representative.