How accurate are the recent NOAA Atlantic hurricane forecasts?
Looking back at the 2020 NOAA forecast
As mentioned above, NOAA
predicted
an above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season with a chance of 13 to 19
named storms, with 6 to 10 storms becoming hurricanes with winds of 74
mph or higher, and of these hurricanes, 3 to 6 storms could become major
hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) with winds reaching 111 mph or higher.
(see https://www.noaa.gov/ media-release/
busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted- for-2020)
The actual 2020 Hurricane season had a record-breaking 30 named storms,
with 12 storms making landfall and 6 storms becoming major hurricanes
(with sustained winds over 111 mph). NOAA noted that the 2020 hurricane
season was “the fifth consecutive year with an above-normal Atlantic
hurricane season, with 18 above-normal seasons out of the past 26. This
increased hurricane activity is attributed to the warm phase of the
Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) — which began in 1995 — and has
favored more, stronger, and longer-lasting storms since that time. Such
active eras for Atlantic hurricanes have historically lasted about 25
to 40 years.”
Looking back at the 2019 NOAA forecast
NOAA
predicted
a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with a 70% chance of 9 to
15 named storms, with 4 to 8 storms becoming hurricanes with winds of 74
mph or higher, and of these hurricanes, 2 to 4 storms could become
major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) with winds reaching 111 mph or
higher. (see:
https://www.noaa.gov/ media-release/ noaa-predicts-near-normal-
2019-atlantic-hurricane-season)
And how accurate was NOAA's 2019 forecast?
NOAA noted that, "[o]verall, the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season featured
above normal activity.
Eighteen [18] named storms formed, of which six [6] became hurricanes
and three [3] became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the long-term
average of twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and three major
hurricanes."
The major hurricanes include Category-5 Hurricane Dorian with sustained
winds of 185 mph that impacted the Bahamas in late-August 2019 causing
70 deaths with damages estimated at US$
3.4 billion.
Looking back at the 2018 Atlantic hurricane forecast
The forecasters at NOAA
predicted
an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2018 with a "70 percent
likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms ..., of which 5 to 9 [storms] could
become hurricanes ..., including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4
or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher)."
And yes, NOAA's 2018 hurricane prediction
was quite accurate:
"Fifteen [15] named storms formed, of which eight [8] became
hurricanes and two [2] became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher
[Hurricanes Florence (140 mph max winds) and Michael (155 mph max winds)]. . .."
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATWSAT.shtml)
Looking back at 2017
In
May 2017,
NOAA predicted an above-normal 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, with a
"70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or
higher), of which 5 to 9 [storms] could become hurricanes (winds of 74
mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). [As a note: a]n
average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes,
including three major hurricanes."
As you might know, the National Hurricane Center has rotating
lists of names
(organized in alphabetical order) used to identify tropical storms and
hurricanes. If a storm is especially "memorable," the hurricane name is
retired from the lists.
Was the 2017 NOAA hurricane forecast accurate? NOAA's 2017 hurricane
prediction was not only accurate, but "[d]ue to the extensive damage
caused in the United States and Caribbean [during 2017], the World
Meteorological Organization’s Region IV Hurricane
Committee
has officially retired [the hurricane names "
Harvey" (Cat. 4), "
Irma" (Cat. 5), "
Maria" (Cat. 5), and "
Nate" (Cat. 1)]."
Looking back at NOAA's 2016 prediction
In
May 2016,
NOAA predicted a near-normal 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 70
percent chance of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of
these possible named storms, 4 to 8 storms could develop into
hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and include 1 to 4 major
hurricanes (with winds of 111 mph or higher).
In reality, the 2016 Hurricane season turned out to be "
the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes." NOAA noted:
"The strongest and longest-lived storm of the season was Matthew,
which reached maximum sustained surface winds of 160 miles per hour and
lasted as a major hurricane for eight days from Sept. 30 to Oct. 7. Matthew was the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Felix in 2007."
In the United States, as the storm approached about 2
million people evacuated Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina - resulting in fairly massive traffic jams. In the end,
over 600 deaths resulted
from Hurricane Matthew (mostly in the Caribbean) and, according to
NOAA, the estimated financial loss attributed to Hurricane Matthew was
around
$10 billion dollars.
Bottom Line: Don't wait to see if the annual NOAA Hurricane Forecast is accurate, prepare now for this year's Hurricane season.
The 2021 Eastern (and Central) Pacific Hurricane Outlook
The eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15th and, like the Atlantic hurricane season, also ends November 30th. The
forecast from NOAA for the eastern Pacific is for a
80% combined chance of near- or below-normal season.
Specifically, the eastern Pacific outlook also calls for a 70 percent
probability of 12 to 18 named storms, of which 5 to 10 storms are
expected to become hurricanes, including 2 to 5 major hurricanes.
The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of 2 to 5
tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms
and hurricanes." (see: "NOAA's 2021 Hurricane Season Outlooks" graphic
for a summary of the Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, and Atlantic
Hurricane Seasons: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ products/Epac_hurr/
Slide1.JPG)
Reminder: Here are some common terms and tips from Ready.gov that you might hear during the Hurricane Season
Hurricane Watch
(hurricane conditions possible within the next 48 hrs).
Steps to take:
• Review your evacuation route(s) & listen to local officials.
• Review the items in your disaster supply kit; and add items to meet
the household needs for children, parents, individuals with disabilities
or other access and functional needs or pets.
Hurricane Warning
(hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hrs).
Steps to take:
• Follow evacuation orders from local officials, if given.
• Check-in with family and friends by texting or using social media.
• Follow the hurricane timeline preparedness checklist, depending on
when the storm is anticipated to hit and the impact that is projected
for your location.
The added importance of advanced preparation: The 2021 Hurricane Season amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
As was true last year, NOAA reminds people to prepare early for hurricanes and other natural disasters due to the added
CDC guidance dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.
What to do when a hurricane is 36 hours from arriving
• Turn on your TV or radio in order to get the latest weather updates and emergency instructions.
• Build or restock your emergency preparedness kit. Include a flashlight, batteries, cash, and first aid supplies.
•
Plan how to communicate with family members if you lose power. For
example, you can call, text, email or use social media. Remember that
during disasters, sending text messages is usually reliable and faster
than making phone calls because phone lines are often overloaded.
• Review your evacuation plan with your family. You may have to leave quickly so plan ahead.
•
Keep your car in good working condition, and keep the gas tank full;
stock your vehicle with emergency supplies and a change of clothes.
What to do when a hurricane is 18-36 hours from arriving
• Bookmark your city or county website for quick access to storm updates and emergency instructions.
•
Bring loose, lightweight objects inside that could become
projectiles in high winds (e.g., patio furniture, garbage cans); anchor
objects that would be unsafe to bring inside (e.g., propane tanks); and
trim or remove trees close enough to fall on the building.
• Cover
all of your home’s windows. Permanent storm shutters offer the best
protection for windows. A second option is to board up windows with 5/8”
exterior grade or marine plywood, cut to fit and ready to install.
What to do when a hurricane is 6-18 hours from arriving
•
Turn on your TV/radio, or check your city/county website every 30
minutes in order to get the latest weather updates and emergency
instructions.
• Charge your cell phone now so you will have a full battery in case you lose power.
What to do when a hurricane is 6 hours from arriving
• If you’re not in an area that is recommended for evacuation, plan to
stay at home or where you are and let friends and family know where you
are.
• Close storm shutters, and stay away from windows. Flying glass from broken windows could injure you.
• Turn your refrigerator or freezer to the coldest setting and open only
when necessary. If you lose power, food will last longer. Keep a
thermometer in the refrigerator to be able to check the food temperature
when the power is restored.
• Turn on your TV/radio, or check your city/county website every 30
minutes in order to get the latest weather updates and emergency
instructions.
What to do after a Hurricane
• Listen to local officials for updates and instructions.
• Check-in with family and friends by texting or using social media.
• Return home only when authorities indicate it is safe.
• Watch out for debris and downed power lines.
• Avoid walking or driving through flood waters. Just 6 inches of moving
water can knock you down, and fast-moving water can sweep your vehicle
away.
• Avoid flood water as it may be electrically charged from underground
or downed power lines and may hide dangerous debris or places where the
ground is washed away.
• Photograph the damage to your property in order to assist in filing an insurance claim.
• Do what you can to prevent further damage to your property, (e.g.,
putting a tarp on a damaged roof), as insurance may not cover additional
damage that occurs after the storm.