In late-July, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)
projected a 1.8% decrease in the average basic Medicare Part D premium when considering the premiums of both stand-alone Medicare Part D drug plans (PDPs) and Medicare Advantage plans with drug coverage (MAPDs).
However, our Q1Medicare
analysis of only the stand-alone 2023 Medicare Part D prescription drug plans (PDPs) indicates a 3% premium increase across all PDPs. And, based on increases in 2023 Medicare Part D plan premiums and the current 2022 Medicare Part D plan enrollment (September
2022), around
64% of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in
a stand-alone Medicare Part D plan* can expect to see
an increase of
about $7.00 in their monthly 2023 Medicare Part D plan premiums
- unless they change their Medicare plan coverage to a more affordable 2023 Medicare Part D
or Medicare Advantage plan.
Increases in average 2023 stand-alone Medicare Part D plan premiums
An analysis of the 2023 stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plans (PDPs)
found that
the national average 2023 Part D premium (not considering plan
enrollment) will
increase 3% from $47.55 in 2022 to $48.97 in 2023, this is in contrast to
the CMS projection
of a
1.8% decrease in the average monthly Medicare Part D plan premium over the
2022 average premium.
The variation between our 3% premium increase and the CMS 1.8% premium decrease may be explained by the presence of low-premium or $0 premium Medicare Advantage (MAPDs) that CMS combined along with stand-alone Medicare Part D plans - whereas we only consider stand-alone Medicare Part D plan information.
Also, the national average monthly 2023 Medicare Part D premium,
weighted by the number of people currently enrolled in each plan will
increase to $42.62 - and a
9% increase over
the 2022 weighted monthly premium of $39.14.
The national weighted-average monthly
premium increase means that, if
everyone stays in their current 2022 stand-alone Medicare Part D
prescription drug plan through 2023, most beneficiaries will see an increase
in their monthly premium.
Please note, the average
monthly premium in each state or Medicare region will vary from the
national average and can be seen in
PDP-Facts.com/2023 by clicking on your state.
Bottom-line: The majority of current 2022 Part D plan members can expect premium
increases in 2023.
Question: How about a few examples of 2023 premium increases?
As a state-level example,
95% of the Medicare beneficiaries* in
New Mexico
who are currently enrolled in a 2022 stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an
increase in their 2023 monthly Medicare Part D premiums. The average monthly premium
increase is $4.24.
As another example,
78% of the people currently enrolled* in a 2022
Florida
stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an average increase in
their 2023 monthly Medicare Part D premiums of around $5.28.
For a chart of how each 2022 Part D plan's features are changing in 2023, please see
PDP-Compare.com/2023.
* Not considering
Low-Income Subsidy eligibility.
Question: Why are the Q1Medicare.com average Medicare Part D premiums higher than premiums
projected by Medicare?
As noted above, the difference between our projected premium calculations and
CMS's is that we are only considering
stand-alone Medicare Part D plans
(
PDPs)
and do not include the premiums for the Medicare Advantage plans
(
MAPDs).
Many MAPDs have a low or $0 monthly premium and we find these low premiums skew average
Medicare Part D drug plan premium figures toward lower values.
Average PDP premium vs. Average weighted* PDP premium vs. CMS' PDP/MAPD average premium
The following chart shows how the average stand-alone Medicare Part D plan and weighted-average stand-alone Medicare Part D
plan premiums have changed since 2007 - and compares these premium changes with the annual CMS estimated
base Medicare Part D premium (considering both Medicare Part D plans (PDPs) and Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage (MAPDs)).
* The projected average premiums weighted by plan enrollment are using the current plan
year's September enrollment data (which is the most current enrollment data at the time of publication). These projected averages
are "updated" next year in this chart using the actual year's enrollment. For example, we calculate a projected 2020 enrollment-weighted average premium using September 2019 enrollment data (and projected a $41.40 weighted PDP premium) and then in September 2020, we update our 2020 projection using the actual September 2020 plan enrollment data (and now the chart shows a $37.72 actual enrollment-weighted PDP premium for 2020 as people moved to lower-premium plans during the 2020 AEP).
Reminder: Your Medicare plan costs and coverage can (and probably will) change each year.
Please review your Annual Notice of Change (ANOC) document and plan options carefully. You can learn more about your
2023 Medicare plan options at
PDP-Finder.com/2023.
The annual Open Enrollment Period (
AEP or Annual Election Period) for Medicare Advantage plans
and Medicare Part D drug plans begins on October 15 and continues through December 7.
The Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Period
(
MA OEP)
will begin January 1st and continues through March 31.
Not sure where to begin?
If you need assistance understanding how your
current Medicare plan is changing or to learn more about your Medicare plan coverage options,
please call 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227) and speak with a Medicare representative.