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84% of people currently enrolled in a 2021 stand-alone Medicare Part D drug plan may see premium increases in 2022

Category: Annual Medicare Plan Changes
Published: Sep, 30 2021 12:09:23
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Based on increases in 2022 Medicare Part D plan premiums and the current 2021 Medicare Part D plan enrollment (September 2021), we estimate that around 84% of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in a stand-alone Medicare Part D plan* can expect to see an increase of about $6.26 in their monthly 2022 Medicare Part D plan premiums - unless they change their Medicare plan coverage to a more affordable 2022 Medicare Part D or Medicare Advantage plan.

Increases in average 2022 Medicare Part D premiums

A preliminary analysis of the 2022 stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plans (PDPs) found that the national average 2022 Part D premium (not considering plan enrollment) will increase 15% from $41.38 in 2021 to $47.55 in 2022, overshadowing the CMS projection of a 4.9% increase in the average monthly Medicare Part D plan premium over the 2021 average premium.

(The large variation between our 15% premium increase and the CMS 4.9% premium increase may be explained by the presence of low-premium or $0 premium Medicare Advantage (MAPDs) that CMS combined along with stand-alone Medicare Part D plans - whereas we only consider stand-alone Medicare Part D plan information.)

Also, the national average monthly 2022 Medicare Part D premium, weighted by the number of people currently enrolled in each plan will increase to $43.19 - also a 15% increase over the 2021 weighted monthly premium of $37.54.

The national weighted-average monthly premium increase means that, if everyone stays in their current 2021 stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plan through 2022, most beneficiaries will see an increase in their monthly premium.

Please note, the average monthly premium in each state or Medicare region will vary from the national average and can be seen in PDP-Facts.com by clicking on your state.

Bottom-line:  The majority of current 2021 Part D plan members can expect premium increases in 2022.

Question:  How about a few examples of 2022 premium increases?

As a state-level example, 93% of the Medicare beneficiaries* in New Mexico who are currently enrolled in a 2021 stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an increase in their 2022 monthly Medicare Part D premiums.  The average monthly premium increase is $6.18.

As another example, 87% of the people currently enrolled* in a 2021 Florida stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an average increase in their 2022 monthly Medicare Part D premiums of around $6.62.

For a chart of how each 2021 Part D plan's features are changing in 2022, please see PDP-Compare.com.

* Not considering Low-Income Subsidy eligibility.

Question:  Why are the Q1Medicare.com average Medicare Part D premiums higher than premiums projected by Medicare?

As noted above, the difference between our projected premium calculations and CMS' is that we are only considering stand-alone Medicare Part D plans (PDPs) and do not include the premiums for the Medicare Advantage plans (MAPDs).  Many MAPDs have a low or $0 monthly premium and we find these low premiums skew average Medicare Part D drug plan premium figures toward lower values.


Average PDP premium vs. Average weighted* PDP premium vs. CMS' PDP/MAPD average premium

The following chart shows how the average and weighted-average stand-alone Medicare Part D premiums have changed since 2007 - and compares these premium values to the CMS estimated base Medicare Part D premium.

Estimated vs Average vs Average Weighted Medicare Part D premiums

* The projected average premiums weighted by plan enrollment are using the current plan year's September enrollment data (which is the most current enrollment data at the time of publication). These projected averages are "updated" next year in this chart using the actual year's enrollment.

For example, we calculate a projected 2020 enrollment-weighted average premium using September 2019 enrollment data (and projected a $41.40 weighted PDP premium) and then in September 2020, we update our 2020 projection using the actual September 2020 plan enrollment data (and now the chart shows a $37.72 actual enrollment-weighted PDP premium for 2020 as people moved to lower-premium plans during the 2020 AEP).

Reminder: Your Medicare plan costs and coverage can (and probably will) change each year.

Please review your Annual Notice of Change (ANOC) document and plan options carefully.  You can learn more about your 2022 Medicare plan options at https://PDP-Finder.com/2022. 

The annual Open Enrollment Period (AEP or Annual Election Period) for Medicare Advantage plans and Medicare Part D drug plans begins on October 15 and continues through December 7.  The Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Period (MA OEP) will begin January 1st and continues through March 31.

Not sure where to begin?

If you need assistance understanding how your current Medicare plan is changing or to learn more about your Medicare plan coverage options, please call 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227) and speak with a Medicare representative.



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