June 1st began the start of the 6-month 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. The good news is that, as of early May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season will be near-normal.
What does this mean? A near-normal Atlantic hurricane season means that NOAA is predicting a 70 percent chance of 10 to 16 named storms -- with winds of 39 mph or higher (includes Alex in January). Of these named storms, 4 to 8 storms could develop into hurricanes -- with winds of 74 mph or higher (includes Alex in January) and include 1 to 4 major hurricanes (with winds of 111 mph or higher).
However, as noted by NOAA lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell, Ph.D., “This is a more challenging [Atlantic] hurricane season outlook than most because it’s difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development. However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in the last three years, which were below normal.”The 2016 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook:
NOAA’s 2016 outlook for the Eastern Pacific hurricane basin, is for a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. The outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of 13-20 named storms, of which 6-11 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3-6 major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and, like the Atlantic hurricane season, also ends November 30th.
The 2016 Central Pacific Hurricane Outlook:
NOAA’s 2016 outlook for the Central Pacific hurricane basin, calls for an equal 40% chance of a near- or above-normal season with 4-7 tropical cyclones likely, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season. The Central Pacific hurricane season, like the Atlantic hurricane season, begins June 1st and ends November 30th.
Are you prepared? If you would like to learn how to prepare for the 2014 hurricane season, take a look at the suggestions provided on the NOAA Hurricane Preparedness site: www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php.
Also, here are also a few tips from the Florida Disaster Preparedness Guide for Elders (found at: elderaffairs.state.fl.us/doea/disaster.php)
- Educate yourself: Learn about your community’s emergency plans, warning signals, evacuation routes, and location of emergency shelters.
- Be aware of potential home hazards: Be prepared to turn off electrical power when there is standing water or a fallen power line, or before you evacuate. Turn off gas and water supplies before you evacuate. Secure structurally unstable materials (building material, grills, and propane tanks).
- Own a fire extinguisher: Buy a fire extinguisher and make sure your family knows where to find it and how to use it. If you have an older extinguisher (over a year old), be sure that it is still functional and inspected by a professional.
- Secure important documents: Locate and secure your important papers, such as insurance policies, wills, licenses, and stock certificates.
- Collect contact information: Post emergency phone numbers at every telephone or save the number in your mobile phone. Some examples of important numbers include your insurance agent, local hospitals, local utilities, local law enforcement, and fire/rescue.
- Do you have special needs? Inform local authorities if your household includes someone with special needs (such as, bed-ridden or disabled).
- Prepare a disaster supply kit: Stock your home, car,
and workplace with supplies that may be needed during the emergency
period (such as, food, water, prescriptions, and non-prescription
medications). You should stock food and water for a minimum of a
three-day period. If you are diabetic, be sure to have a means to keep
your medications cool while traveling or during a power outage (such as a
well-insulated mini-cooler). If you have a pet, look now for a
pet-friendly shelter and have pet supplies ready. The government's (www.ready.gov/build-a-kit) Basic Disaster Supplies Kit includes:
- Water, one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days, for drinking and sanitation
- Food, at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food
- Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert and extra batteries for both
- Flashlight and extra batteries
- First aid kit
- Whistle to signal for help
- Dust mask to help filter contaminated air and plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter-in-place
- Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation
- Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities
- Manual can opener for food
- Local maps
- Cell phone with chargers, inverter or solar charger