As was true in past years, our national PDP-Facts page provides both the average national stand-alone Medicare Part D plan premium weighted by current Medicare plan enrollment (or popularity) — $41.29 in 2019, as well as the un-weighted national average premium — $47.21 in 2019.
As may be expected, the weighted average Medicare Part D premiums are lower than the un-weighted average premiums, showing that most Medicare beneficiaries chose a 2018 Medicare Part D plan with a lower monthly premium.
The overall average, un-weighted 2019 Medicare Part D premium (not considering plan enrollment) has decreased slightly (from $52.69 in 2018 to $47.21 in 2019), showing that the monthly Medicare Part D plan premiums have generally remained somewhat stable over the past plan-year.
However, the national average monthly 2019 Medicare Part D premium, weighted by the number of people currently enrolled in each plan will increase to $41.29 or an 2% increase over the 2018 weighted monthly premium of $40.60 (please note, the average monthly premium in state or Medicare region will vary from the national average).
The national weighted-average monthly premium increase means that if everyone stays in their current 2018 stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plan through 2019, beneficiaries will see an increase in their monthly premium.
Why are our average Medicare Part D premiums higher than premiums projected by Medicare?
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recently issued a press release projecting a decrease in 2019 Medicare Part D premiums. CMS noted that, "for the second year in a row, the average basic premium for a Medicare Part D prescription drug plan in 2019 is projected to decline. At a time when health insurance premiums are rising across-the-board, basic Part D premiums are expected to fall from $33.59 this year to $32.50 next year."
The difference between our calculations and CMS' is that we are only considering stand-alone Medicare Part D plans (PDPs) and not including the premiums for the Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage (MAPDs). We find that many MAPDs have a low or $0 monthly premium and skew average Medicare drug plan premium figures toward lower values.
Average PDP premium vs. Average weighted* PDP premium vs. CMS' PDP/MAPD average premium
The following chart shows how the average and weighted-average stand-alone Medicare Part D premiums have changed since 2007 - and compares these premium values to the CMS estimated base Medicare Part D premium.
* The projected average premiums weighted by plan enrollment are using the current plan year's September enrollment data (or the latest enrollment data) and then these projected averages are "updated" next year in this chart using the actual year's enrollment. So we calculate a projected 2018 enrollment-weighted average premium using September 2017 enrollment data (and projected a $42.70 weighted PDP premium) and then in September 2018, we update our 2018 projection using the actual September 2018 plan enrollment data (and now the chart shows a $40.60 actual enrollment-weighted PDP premium for 2018 as people moved to lower-premium plans during the 2018 AEP).
How about a few State-specific Examples?
As a state-level example, 94% of the Medicare beneficiaries in Arkansas who are enrolled in a stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an increase in their 2019 monthly Medicare Part D premiums. The average increase is $4.90.
As another example, 73% of the people enrolled in a Florida stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an average increase in their 2019 monthly Medicare Part D premiums of around $3.39.
Reminder: Your Medicare plan costs and coverage can (and probably will) change each year.
Learn more about your 2019 Medicare plan options at https://PDP-Finder.com/2019.
The Annual Enrollment Period (AEP or Annual Election Period) for Medicare Advantage plans and Medicare Part D drug plans begins on October 15 and continues through December 7, 2018. The Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Period will begin January 1st and continues through March 31, 2019.
Not sure where to begin?
If you or another Medicare beneficiary needs assistance understanding how your 2018 Medicare plan is changing or to learn more about your 2019 Medicare plan coverage options, please call 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227) and speak with a Medicare representative.