However, our this site analysis of only the stand-alone 2024 Medicare Part D PDPs indicates a 21% premium increase across all PDPs when considering current plan enrollment.
Accordingly, based on increases in 2024 Medicare Part D plan premiums and the current 2023 Medicare Part D plan enrollment (September 2023), around 73% of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in a stand-alone Medicare Part D plan* can expect to see an increase of about $14.34 in their monthly 2024 Medicare Part D plan premiums - unless they change their Medicare plan coverage to a more affordable 2024 Medicare Part D or Medicare Advantage plan.
More about Increases in average 2024 stand-alone Medicare Part D plan premiums
When not considering plan enrollment, our analysis of the 2024 stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plan landscape found that the national average 2024 Part D premium will increase 22% from $48.97 in 2023 to $59.77 in 2024.
When weighted by the number of people currently enrolled in each plan, this site calculated that the national average monthly 2024 Medicare Part D premium will increase to $48.11 - a 21% increase over the 2023 weighted monthly premium of $39.60.
Again, the this site findings are in contrast to the CMS projection of a 1.8% decrease in the average total monthly Medicare Part D plan premium over the 2023 average total premium.
How does the 21% increase in enrollment-weighted average PDP premiums reconcile with the CMS predicted 1.8% decrease in average total monthly premiums?
One difference between our this site projected premium calculations and CMS' is that we are only considering stand-alone Medicare Part D plans (PDPs) and do not include the premiums for the Medicare Advantage plans (MAPDs). Many MAPDs have a low or $0 monthly premium and we find these low premiums skew average Medicare Part D drug plan premium figures toward lower average values.
So, the variation between our 21% PDP premium increase and the CMS 1.8% premium decrease may be explained, in part, by the presence of low-premium or $0 premium Medicare Advantage (MAPDs) plans that CMS combined along with stand-alone Medicare Part D PDP data. In contrast, our this site analysis only considers stand-alone Medicare Part D PDP information.
As a note, CMS defined several different premium measures in their July 2023 Press Release, when explaining annual premium changes:
- 2024 National Average Monthly Bid Amount: CMS calculated that the 2024 Part D "national average monthly bid amount" is $64.28 - an 85% increase over the 2023 average monthly bid $34.71.
- 2024 Part D Base Beneficiary Premium (BBP) - the Base premium would have increased 20%, but with IRA premium stabilization, the BBP increase was held at a 6% increase.
- 2024 estimated Part D average Basic Part D premium: 7.5% increase
- 2024 estimated Supplemental D premium: 14% decrease - Medicare Part D plans
can have either basic or standard Medicare Part D plan coverage (plans designated as (BA, DS, AE))
or the Part D plans can add coverage features beyond basic Part D
coverage and these plans are called Enhanced Alternative Medicare Part D
plans (or Part D plans designated as (EA)).
To cover these additional coverage features (such as $0 deductible or cost-sharing less than paying 25% of retail drug prices) Enhanced Alternative Medicare Part D plans will have a Supplemental premium added to the plan's Basic Part D premium. According to CMS, the vast majority (75%) of Medicare Part D beneficiaries are currently enrolled in an (EA) Part D plan with enhanced features.
Bottom-line: Many people currently enrolled in a 2023 Medicare PDP can expect premium increases in 2024. Average PDP premium vs. Average weighted PDP premium** vs. CMS' PDP/MAPD average premium vs. Average total Part D premium
The following chart shows how the average stand-alone Medicare Part D plan and weighted-average stand-alone Medicare Part D plan premiums have changed since 2007 - and compares these premium changes with the CMS estimated Total Part D Premium and CMS estimated basic Medicare Part D premium. Both CMS estimates consider both Medicare Part D plans (PDPs) and Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage (MAPDs).
**The projected average premiums weighted by plan enrollment are using the current plan year's September enrollment data (which is the most current enrollment data at the time of publication). These projected averages are "updated" next year in this chart using the actual year's enrollment. For example, we calculate a projected 2023 enrollment-weighted average premium using September 2022 enrollment data (and projected a $40.81 weighted PDP premium) and then in September 2023, we update our 2023 projection using the actual September 2023 plan enrollment data (and now the chart shows a $39.60 actual enrollment-weighted PDP premium for 2023 as people moved to lower-premium plans during the 2023 AEP).
See our article, CMS projects a 1.8% decrease in 2024 average total Medicare prescription drug plan premium for a more in depth look at the estimated. premiums. Question: How about a few examples of 2024 PDP premium increases?
As a state-level example, 85% of the Medicare beneficiaries* in Alaska who are currently enrolled in a 2023 stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an increase in their 2024 monthly Medicare Part D premiums. The average monthly PDP premium increase in Alaska is $12.10.
As another example, 83% of the people currently enrolled* in a 2023 Louisiana stand-alone Medicare Part D plan can expect an average increase in their 2024 monthly Medicare Part D PDP premiums of around $12.46.
For a chart of how each 2023 Part D plan's features are changing in 2024, please see PDP-Compare.com/2024.
*Not considering Low-Income Subsidy (LIS) eligibility.
Reminder: Your Medicare plan costs and coverage can (and probably will) change each year.
Please review your Annual Notice of Change (ANOC) document and plan options carefully. You can learn more about your 2024 Medicare plan options at PDP-Finder.com/2024.
The annual Open Enrollment Period (AEP or OEP or Annual Election Period) for Medicare Advantage plans and Medicare Part D drug plans begins on October 15 and continues through December 7. The Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Period (MA OEP) will begin January 1st and continues through March 31.
Not sure where to begin?
If you need assistance understanding how your current Medicare plan is changing or to learn more about your Medicare plan coverage options, please call 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227) and speak with a Medicare representative.